1. What is this?

A high-level, very casual, and often self-deprecating look at trends in catches of Tyee salmon in Campbell River’s legendary Tyee Pool. All data exploration is being completed for fun and to learn some new tools (namely R Markdown and plotly).

There are far more technical ways of examining this data, but they aren’t as much fun - and are frankly hard. This analysis is living and will evolve over time. All results and interpretation are purely speculative and should be considered nothing more than ramblings of a fish nerd.

Normally this is where I would put pictures of all the beautiful Tyee I have captured, but that hasn’t happened yet. So far, these are the best things I have managed to get in my boat

## [1] FALSE
##  [1] "Date"                 "Month"                "catch_binary"        
##  [4] "Year"                 "Weeknum"              "catch_yr.total"      
##  [7] "catch_yr.mean"        "catch_yrs.mean.total" "catch_yrs.mean.catch"
## [10] "tyee_cycle4"          "tyee_cycle5"          "catch_yrwk.total"    
## [13] "catch_wk.total"       "catch_wk.mean"        "catch_wks.mean"
##  [1] "Waterbody"         "Year"              "Species"          
##  [4] "TotalReturns"      "Area"              "Population"       
##  [7] "binary"            "Complete.Dataset"  "Total.Annual.Esc" 
## [10] "Mean.Annual.Esc"   "Total.Area.Esc.Yr" "Mean.Area.Esc"    
## [13] "Total.Esc.Prop"    "Area.Esc.Prop"
##  [1] "Waterbody"         "Year"              "Species"          
##  [4] "TotalReturns"      "Area"              "Population"       
##  [7] "binary"            "Complete.Dataset"  "Total.Annual.Esc" 
## [10] "Mean.Annual.Esc"   "Total.Area.Esc.Yr" "Mean.Area.Esc"    
## [13] "Total.Esc.Prop"    "Area.Esc.Prop"
##   [1] "Country"                      "Whole Country/Province/State"
##   [3] "Reporting Area"               "Species"                     
##   [5] "Catch Type"                   "Data Type"                   
##   [7] "1925"                         "1926"                        
##   [9] "1927"                         "1928"                        
##  [11] "1929"                         "1930"                        
##  [13] "1931"                         "1932"                        
##  [15] "1933"                         "1934"                        
##  [17] "1935"                         "1936"                        
##  [19] "1937"                         "1938"                        
##  [21] "1939"                         "1940"                        
##  [23] "1941"                         "1942"                        
##  [25] "1943"                         "1944"                        
##  [27] "1945"                         "1946"                        
##  [29] "1947"                         "1948"                        
##  [31] "1949"                         "1950"                        
##  [33] "1951"                         "1952"                        
##  [35] "1953"                         "1954"                        
##  [37] "1955"                         "1956"                        
##  [39] "1957"                         "1958"                        
##  [41] "1959"                         "1960"                        
##  [43] "1961"                         "1962"                        
##  [45] "1963"                         "1964"                        
##  [47] "1965"                         "1966"                        
##  [49] "1967"                         "1968"                        
##  [51] "1969"                         "1970"                        
##  [53] "1971"                         "1972"                        
##  [55] "1973"                         "1974"                        
##  [57] "1975"                         "1976"                        
##  [59] "1977"                         "1978"                        
##  [61] "1979"                         "1980"                        
##  [63] "1981"                         "1982"                        
##  [65] "1983"                         "1984"                        
##  [67] "1985"                         "1986"                        
##  [69] "1987"                         "1988"                        
##  [71] "1989"                         "1990"                        
##  [73] "1991"                         "1992"                        
##  [75] "1993"                         "1994"                        
##  [77] "1995"                         "1996"                        
##  [79] "1997"                         "1998"                        
##  [81] "1999"                         "2000"                        
##  [83] "2001"                         "2002"                        
##  [85] "2003"                         "2004"                        
##  [87] "2005"                         "2006"                        
##  [89] "2007"                         "2008"                        
##  [91] "2009"                         "2010"                        
##  [93] "2011"                         "2012"                        
##  [95] "2013"                         "2014"                        
##  [97] "2015"                         "2016"                        
##  [99] "2017"                         "2018"                        
## [101] "2019"                         "2020"                        
## [103] "2021"

1.1 The Data

I have compiled the following datasets to use in this analysis. Whether they are all incorporated is yet to be seen.

  1. Annual catch records from the Tyee Club.
  2. Angling effort and undersize fish catches from Tyee Club yearbooks (2019 to 2022).
  3. Discharge data collected on the Campbell River by the Water Survey of Canada.
  4. Annual Chinook Salmon escapement data available in the DFO NuSEDS database.
  5. Annual catch statistics from the North Pacific Anadromous Fish Commission.
  6. Area based commercial catch statistics from DFO are available from 2001 to 2016
  7. Straight of Georgia herring spawn and catch data.
  8. Southeast Alaska commercial catch data from North Pacific Anadromous Fish Commission.
  9. Hatchery release statistics from North Pacific Anadromous Fish Commission.
  10. Known ocean ranges of Pacific Salmon and Steelhead stocks
  11. Chinook survival data prepared by Welch et al. 2020

This is certainly an interesting dataset, especially given it is the centenary of the Tyee Club, but it has its limitations. For example, there is no accessible information on effort (# boats per day), biological data (e.g. size, girth and age of tyees) or numbers of non-tyee salmon captured in the pool.

2. Let’s look at the Tyee catch data!

There are lots of ways to look at this data. I am most curious about three things:

  1. How total catches vary among years and if they fluctuate relative to escapement.

  2. When are Tyees most frequently captured?

  3. Has fish size changed across seasons? Does fish size vary within seasons?

2.1 Total catches across years.

Figure 1: Trends in Tyee Salmon captures and Campbell River Chinook Salmon escapement.

A quick look at Tyee catches (blue vertical bars) in Figure 1 shows:

  1. There is a fairly clear 4-year cycle of relatively higher catches (highlighted with shading). Which is interesting, and raises lots of questions…
  2. There has been a consistent decline in the number of Tyee salmon captured per year.
  3. There was a major crash or failure in 2014.

If we look at Escapement data (blue line) shown in Figure 1 , we can see:

  1. There has been a general declining trend in escapement (consistent with regional trends),
  2. Periods of increased escapement correspond with periods of increased Tyee catches, but not always (e.g. 2005, 2017 and 2020). Given the lack of information on effort (e.g. # of boats fishing per day) we cannot tease apart whether the lack of catches in some years is due to reduction in pressure.
  3. It is also possible that years with high escapement and low Tyee numbers were due to an increased proportion of smaller fish returning to the Campbell. Without annual information on age structure I cannot tease this apart.

Now, lets see when fish are most frequently captured throughout the season, and if there has been a change over time.

2.2 Cumulative catches per year.

Let’s take a look at how cumulative catches compare within decades.

Figure 2: Cumulative tally of Tyee’s captured by decade.

Lots of variability in total catches per year across the decade, but overall mean catches per decade are decreasing steadily from ~47 in 2000’s, to ~27 in 2010’s and 19 in 2020’s.

2.3 Effort and catches of undersize fish.

The Tyee club weighmaster has been recording the number of boats fishing morning, noon and evening tides, as well as the number of undersize fish captured throughout the season. This data has been recorded for ~8’ish years, however, data is only publicaly available from 2019 onwards.

Table 1. Summary of undersize catches and effort from 2019 to 2022
Year # Tyee # Undersize Fish Total Fish % Tyee Total Boats % Boats Catching
2019 13 181 194 6.7 2,204 8.8
2020 14 108 122 11.5 2,337 5.2
2021 36 210 246 14.6 2,461 10.0
2022 6 86 92 6.5 2,136 4.3

2.4 When fish are most frequently captured.

The Tyee season runs from July 15 to September 15. I need to pick my battles with my wife and boss. Let’s see which days I should be fighting for!?

2.4.1 First Tyee of the Year

Let’s see when the first Tyee are most frequently captured each season. Alright, looks like I should have fished tonight (August 1) and need to fish August 6. Note that values for August 2 and August 7 are somewhat misleading as the plot is showing the number of fish captured on opening day.

Figure 3: Number of Tyee captured on date when first Tyee is registered.

2.4.2 When the most Tyee’s are captured each year.

Figure 4: Total fish captured by date and decade

This plot will become a lot more interesting once I can get my hands on some historical data. But for now, we can see:

  • People either do not fish, or do not catch fish before late July/early August. Given the way catches increase through August I am thinking it is the latter.
  • Peak catches occur in mid to late August.
  • August 18-19 is a must fish kind of day.
  • Good luck on July 30.

OK, well now we know not to bother fishing until early August, that I should book the off the last 3 weeks of August and that odds are that 2023 is not going to set a new record for most Tyee’s captured. But who knows.

2.5 Does fish size vary within or between seasons?

Figure 5: Mean annual weight of Tyee Salmon captured since 2002.

So overall mean fish size is relatively consistent across years. That’s good news, but maybe there are better ways to look at this data. Bar plots can be deceptive.

Figure 5: Mean annual weight of Tyee Salmon captured since 2002.

Well that is a bit better. The overall mean size of Tyee has stayed relatively stable across years, which makes sense given there is a minimum size limit for Tyee - but there also appears to fewer bigger fish being captured each year.

Figure 6: Weight of Tyee salmon caught per day since 2002.

What a mess. Pretty hard to identify any relationships from that figure.

2.5.1 Historic fish size trends.

Historic catch record data is available back to 1923, but only for newly registered members. So any fish captured by existing members are excluded. Either way, the data set still includes over 2880 records and offers a peak into the historic size range of fish captured in the Tyee pool.

If we plot the mean weight for each year we get the figure below which shows a fairly strong decreasing trend in fish size since about 1950.

Figure 7: Mean annual weight and SE of all fish recorded in the record book since 1923.

Given the variability in the number of fish that were captured each year, lets try to standardize the process by selecting a random sample of 10 fish from each year (or all fish if less than 10 were registered in a year). This produces the figure below. Which also shows a strong decreasing trend in fish size since the late 1940’s and early 1950’s.

Figure 8: Mean annual weight and SE of 10 randomly selected fish recorded in the record book since 1923.

2.6 Daily catches per year.

To round this out, let’s just have a look at the total number of fish caught per day over the past 20 years.

Figure 4: Total fish captured by date and decade

Without additional data there is not much else to look at. So let’s change gears and start poking around at what may be contributing to observed patterns in catches and size.

2.7 Who’s who in the zoo?

Let’s have a look at who has been catching the most fish! First we will look at who has caught the most fish in the past 5 years, then we will have a look at all the data.

Table 2. Number of fish captured and rowed by anglers and guides since 2018.
Total Tyee
Tyee Rowed
Tyee Angled
Member Rank (Rowed + Angled) 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total
Mike Stutzel 1 17 1 1 1 5 2 4 14 1 1 0 1 0 0 3
Mike Dougan 2 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Peter Wipper 2 6 0 0 1 2 1 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Maegen Dougan 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 5
Mike Newton 4 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 2 3
Mike Mackie 6 4 2 1 0 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Paul Curtis 6 4 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 2
Paul Pearson 6 4 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Bob Main 9 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
Bruce Herkes 9 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 2
Darla Hunt 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3
Floyd Ross 9 3 0 1 1 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jim Clowes 9 3 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
Mark Thulin 9 3 1 0 0 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nathon Miller 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 3
R.D. Berger 9 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Randy Killoran 9 3 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Reid Herkes 9 3 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Trevor Gains 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Yari Ivanisko 9 3 1 0 1 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Brett Gardner 21 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Burt Campbell 21 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Greg Askey 21 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
John Woodward 21 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
Jules LaCroix 21 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Karen Hutton 21 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 2
Ken Enns 21 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ken Mar 21 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Mark Trenholm 21 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Morris Trace 21 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ric Dionne 21 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Richard Holman 21 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Rick Janzen 21 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rick Joubert 21 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rob Austin 21 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Roma Boutilier 21 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 2
Steve Spiers 21 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tyson Berkenstock 21 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Walter Stutzel 21 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 2
Allyn Harvey 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Amaro Lozano 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Andrew Rippingale 40 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aren Knudsen 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Ben Campbell 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Beth Newton 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Betty Gage 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
Bob Barrett 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Bob Joseph 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Brady Thulin 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Brodie Doherty 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Bruce Aikmen 40 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bruce Preston 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Bryan Rickert 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Carole Beaudoin 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Chris Nicholas 40 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chris Sheilds 40 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Clayton Stoner 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Cyena McIntosh 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Dan Hatch 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Dan Heaven 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Darrell Mustard 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Dave Lavigne 40 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dave Ludvigson 40 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dave Nutt 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Dave Soper 40 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
David Duke 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
David Nutt 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
David Richter 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Davin Saunders 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Dawn Hamilton 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Diana Clowes 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Don Syroid 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Doug Ellis 40 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dustin Marsh 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Dwayne Mustard 40 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dyson Ivanisko 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Forrest Owens 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Gary Lawson 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Gary Soles 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
George Deagle 40 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Glen McIntosh 40 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Grant Rosswarne 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Grayden McInnes 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Greg Main 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Jaret Knowles 40 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jeremy Maynard 40 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Joe Boutilier 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
John Bentham 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
John Chalmers 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
John Todd 40 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Judy Janzen 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
Kalla Shields 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Kalyn Sutherland 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Karren Hutton 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Ken Duke 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Klaus Weger 40 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Landon Mackie 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Laurie York 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Lisa Nicholas 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
MacKenzie Collins 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mark Lagos 40 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mike Hamilton 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Miles Latrace 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Monique Weeks 40 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Montagu Lee 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Nathan Boutilier 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Nathan Lagos 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Paula Davies 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Raeya Mackie 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Reaya Mackie 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Reg Mackenzie 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
Rich Fryer 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
Rick Hackinen 40 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rick Tillapaugh 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Rob Turko 40 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Robi Gareau 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Roger Gage 40 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ross Spiers 40 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rowen Berkey 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
Roy Grant 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ryan Newton 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Sarah Deagle 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Scott Laird 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
Sean Batty 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Shane Roberts 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Terry Blasco 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Tim Hanika 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Tim Samuels 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Tom Hooge 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Trevor Erickson 40 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Troy Perras 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Trygg Carlson 40 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Table 3. Number of fish captured and rowed by anglers and guides who have caught more than 5 Tyee, per decade since 2002.
Total Tyee
Tyee Rowed
Tyee Angled
Member Rank (Rowed + Angled) 2000’s 2010’s 2020’s Total 2000’s 2010’s 2020’s Total
Randy Killoran 1 41 23 15 2 40 0 0 1 1
Ken Mar 2 33 22 6 1 29 3 0 1 4
R.D. Berger 3 28 20 7 0 27 0 0 1 1
Paul Curtis 4 26 14 4 2 20 4 0 2 6
Jeremy Maynard 5 24 16 8 0 24 0 0 0 0
John Woodward 6 23 11 5 1 17 4 2 0 6
Ross Spiers 7 22 12 9 1 22 0 0 0 0
Chris Plamondon 8 20 11 1 0 12 8 0 0 8
Mike Mackie 8 20 5 13 1 19 1 0 0 1
Roy Grant 8 20 12 7 1 20 0 0 0 0
Mike Stutzel 11 19 0 3 12 15 0 3 1 4
Reid Herkes 11 19 13 4 1 18 0 0 1 1
Jim Clowes 13 17 9 5 2 16 0 1 0 1
Peter Wipper 13 17 1 9 5 15 1 0 1 2
Norm Lee 15 16 8 5 0 13 1 2 0 3
Floyd Ross 16 15 4 3 2 9 4 2 0 6
Ken Enns 16 15 5 3 1 9 5 1 0 6
Bill Tomicki 18 14 0 0 0 0 9 5 0 14
John Barker 18 14 5 4 0 9 2 3 0 5
Shara Berger 18 14 0 0 0 0 13 1 0 14
Burt Campbell 21 13 5 4 2 11 2 0 0 2
Mike Kauertz 21 13 2 4 0 6 5 2 0 7
Mark Thulin 23 12 2 8 2 12 0 0 0 0
Paul Breukers 23 12 9 1 0 10 2 0 0 2
Brant Peniuk 25 11 8 1 0 9 2 0 0 2
Peter Kruse 25 11 10 1 0 11 0 0 0 0
Tim Samuels 25 11 0 0 0 0 6 4 1 11
Troy Winslow 25 11 1 0 0 1 7 3 0 10
Jules LaCroix 29 10 0 3 0 3 0 7 0 7
Klaus Weger 29 10 3 6 0 9 0 1 0 1
Travis Trace 29 10 6 1 0 7 3 0 0 3
Bill Idiens 32 9 5 1 0 6 2 1 0 3
Chris Cook 32 9 2 2 0 4 3 2 0 5
Fred Gerl 32 9 1 4 0 5 2 2 0 4
Lisa Woodward 32 9 0 0 0 0 5 4 0 9
Dale Kashuba 36 8 0 0 0 0 1 7 0 8
Gene Berkey 36 8 7 1 0 8 0 0 0 0
Joe Painter 36 8 2 3 0 5 1 2 0 3
Monique Weeks 36 8 4 2 0 6 2 0 0 2
Morris Trace 36 8 3 1 2 6 2 0 0 2
Dale Blackburn 41 7 3 2 0 5 2 0 0 2
Neil Cameron 41 7 6 1 0 7 0 0 0 0
Bruce Herkes 43 6 2 0 1 3 1 1 1 3
Greg Askey 43 6 0 1 1 2 0 3 1 4
Harry Thulin 43 6 0 0 0 0 2 4 0 6
Mike Dougan 43 6 0 2 4 6 0 0 0 0
Peter Winter 43 6 3 3 0 6 0 0 0 0
Phil Griffith 43 6 1 3 0 4 2 0 0 2
Sean Kiley 43 6 5 1 0 6 0 0 0 0
Ted Milbrandt 43 6 2 4 0 6 0 0 0 0
Yari Ivanisko 43 6 0 4 2 6 0 0 0 0
A.J. Larsen 52 5 5 0 0 5 0 0 0 0
Bob Main 52 5 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 3
Brett Gardner 52 5 0 1 2 3 0 2 0 2
Bruce Aikmen 52 5 2 3 0 5 0 0 0 0
Darrell Knowles 52 5 3 1 0 4 1 0 0 1
Dave Hadden 52 5 2 3 0 5 0 0 0 0
Dean Bell 52 5 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 5
Karen D’Alessandro 52 5 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 5
Ken Fletcher 52 5 4 1 0 5 0 0 0 0
Maegen Dougan 52 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 5
Mike Netzel 52 5 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 5
Mike Newton 52 5 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 3
Paula Davies 52 5 0 0 0 0 1 3 1 5
Ric Dionne 52 5 1 0 2 3 2 0 0 2
Rick Janzen 52 5 0 4 1 5 0 0 0 0
Robert Hobbs 52 5 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 5
Robin Modesto 52 5 0 3 0 3 0 2 0 2
Stuart Wolfe 52 5 2 0 0 2 3 0 0 3

Looks like I need to try to get on Randy Killoran or Mike Stutzel’s boats. If you guys see this, I would love to get out for a tide! A total of 78 fish have been registered since 2020, or which Mike Stutzel has captured 13 or 17%. In the current dataset, nobody has stats like that! Randy caught (rowed or angled) the most fish in the 2000’s (n = 23 of 384 registered) and 2010’s (n = 15 of 268 registered), but his fish represent 6% of the total catch in each decade.

Table 4. Number of fish captured and rowed by anglers and guides who have caught less than 5 Tyee, per decade since
2002.
Total Tyee
Tyee Rowed
Tyee Angled
Member Rank (Rowed + Angled) 2000’s 2010’s 2020’s Total 2000’s 2010’s 2020’s Total
Andrew Rippingale 70 4 1 2 1 4 0 0 0 0
Bill Herkes 70 4 4 0 0 4 0 0 0 0
Bill Ostler 70 4 0 1 0 1 2 1 0 3
Brian Isfeld 70 4 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 4
Bruce Walton 70 4 3 0 0 3 1 0 0 1
Corinne Wolfe 70 4 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 4
Darcey Houser 70 4 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 4
Dick Knowles 70 4 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 2
Don Swoboda 70 4 0 0 0 0 3 1 0 4
James Wolfe 70 4 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 4
John Todd 70 4 0 3 0 3 0 1 0 1
Justin Horsman 70 4 0 3 0 3 1 0 0 1
Karin Plamondon 70 4 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 4
Mark Lagos 70 4 0 3 1 4 0 0 0 0
Paul Pearson 70 4 0 0 2 2 0 0 2 2
Sean Kelly 70 4 0 0 0 0 3 1 0 4
Shauna Schmitke 70 4 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 2
Shauna Towriss 70 4 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 4
Steve Spiers 70 4 0 3 1 4 0 0 0 0
Todd Peachey 70 4 0 2 0 2 2 0 0 2
Troy Perras 70 4 0 3 0 3 0 0 1 1
Bob Joseph 91 3 2 0 0 2 0 0 1 1
Brady Thulin 91 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 3
Brian Kruse 91 3 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 3
Brigid Pomeroy 91 3 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 3
Chris Gauthier 91 3 1 1 0 2 1 0 0 1
Darcy Gerhard 91 3 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 3
Darla Hunt 91 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3
Dave Soper 91 3 0 1 1 2 0 1 0 1
Don McPhee 91 3 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 3
Doug Ellis 91 3 0 3 0 3 0 0 0 0
Ed Fellbaum 91 3 1 1 0 2 1 0 0 1
Gary Soles 91 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 3
George Minosky 91 3 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 3
George Reifel Jr.  91 3 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 3
Joe Watson 91 3 3 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
John Chalmers 91 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 3
Karen Hutton 91 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3
Kevin Gunning 91 3 2 1 0 3 0 0 0 0
Landon Mackie 91 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 3
Larry Dougan 91 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 3
Matthew Blackburn 91 3 2 0 0 2 1 0 0 1
Mike Benjestorf 91 3 0 3 0 3 0 0 0 0
Mike Patterson 91 3 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 2
Mike Rankin 91 3 3 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
Nathon Miller 91 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3
Rick Hackinen 91 3 0 2 1 3 0 0 0 0
Roger Barriault 91 3 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 2
Roger Gage 91 3 0 2 0 2 0 1 0 1
Sharon Fisher 91 3 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 3
Steve Babcock 91 3 1 2 0 3 0 0 0 0
Steve Clayton 91 3 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 3
Stuart Haigh 91 3 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 3
Trevor Gains 91 3 0 0 2 2 0 0 1 1
Walter Schoenfelder 91 3 3 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
Al Frumento 125 2 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
Anthony Mar 125 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Ben Campbell 125 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 2
Bill Cosulich 125 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2
Bob Hammond 125 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Bradley Mah 125 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Bruce Kirby 125 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Bruce Middleton 125 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 2
Carole Beaudoin 125 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2
Carter Coblenz 125 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2
Chad Atkinson 125 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Chel Bassoni 125 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2
Chris Brotherston 125 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Chris Nicholas 125 2 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0
Clyde Bergendahl 125 2 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1
Dan Plamondon 125 2 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1
Daniel Bell 125 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Dave Ludvigson 125 2 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1
Dave Wardell 125 2 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
David Davis 125 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 2
David Duke 125 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2
David Stover 125 2 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
Deb Idiens 125 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 2
Debra Herkes 125 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Dick Patterson 125 2 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
Don Hutchison 125 2 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
Edward Painter 125 2 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
Ernest Anderson 125 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1
Gary Brettnacher 125 2 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
Geoff Bertram 125 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
George Reifel Sr.  125 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Gordon Berkey 125 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Gordon Dawson 125 2 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
Gordon Gerl 125 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2
Gordon Killoran 125 2 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
Graham Rawlins 125 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1
Harley Plamondon 125 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Harold Larson 125 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Jan Brettnacher 125 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Jeff Morrison 125 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1
Jeff Spence 125 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Jeremy Bell 125 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Jim Spiers 125 2 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 0
Joe Boutilier 125 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2
Joe Cameron 125 2 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 0
John Cronkite 125 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
John Duncan 125 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2
John Simson 125 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Judy Janzen 125 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2
Ken Duke 125 2 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0
Ken E. Enns 125 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2
Kevin Chase 125 2 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
Kevin McAughtrie 125 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Kim Prystupa 125 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Kurt Franz 125 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Lee Deslauriers 125 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2
Leonard Steingarten 125 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Mark Murphy 125 2 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
Mark Trenholm 125 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0
Martin Buchanan 125 2 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0
Mathew Blackburn 125 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Mickey Kiley 125 2 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1
Mike Hamilton 125 2 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0
Mike Mcmann 125 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 2
Mike Tomczyk 125 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1
Mike Woods 125 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Nathan Lagos 125 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2
Parker Wong 125 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Pat Dodman 125 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Pat Kiley 125 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Paul McDonald 125 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2
Rich Chapple 125 2 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
Richard Gage 125 2 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0
Richard Holman 125 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1
Rick Gunn 125 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2
Rick Joubert 125 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0
Roanne Dunbar 125 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Rob Austin 125 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2
Rob Saunders 125 2 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0
Roma Boutilier 125 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2
Scott Babcock 125 2 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 0
Scott Laird 125 2 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1
Steve Sharkey 125 2 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
Steve Smith 125 2 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
Steve W. Smith 125 2 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
Steve Webber 125 2 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
Tim Breukers 125 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Tony Peniuk 125 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Tyson Berkenstock 125 2 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0
Walter Stutzel 125 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2
Wendy Reifel 125 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Yael Woodward 125 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Aaron Boles 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Aaron Coulter 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Al D’Alessandro 217 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Alex Benjestorf 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Allyn Harvey 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Amaro Lozano 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Andre Paquin 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Andy Beech 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Anita Painter 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Aren Knudsen 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Aron Lee 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Ashley Campbell 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Barry Hamilton 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Barry Watchorn 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Benard Simoneau 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Beth Newton 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Betty Gage 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Bill Monaghan 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Bill Ridge 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Blair Belton 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Blair Howell 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Bob Barrett 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Bob Hall 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Bob Hirte 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Bob Mitchell 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Brenda Gunn 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Brenda McGovern 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Brent Marin 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Britt Hilton 217 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Brodie Doherty 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Bruce Preston 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Bryan Rickert 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Bryce Cockburn 217 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Burton Wright 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Cameron Trace 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Carol Beaudoin 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Carol Seable 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Cathy Moulton 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Celeste Howard 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Chad Mergaert 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Chad Prystupa 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Charlene Murphy 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Chris Fawbert 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Chris Perreault 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Chris Plamondon  217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Chris Sheilds 217 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
Cindy King 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Clayton Stoner 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Cliff Doerksen 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Constance Kretz 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Cory Albrecht 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Cyena McIntosh 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Dan Babchuck 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Dan Hatch 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Dan Heaven 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Dan Hryhoryshen 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Dan York 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Daphne Frost 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Darrel Tomlinson 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Darrell Mustard 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Daryl Mackie 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Dave Clarke 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Dave Gilson 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Dave Lavigne 217 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Dave Mackie 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Dave Nutt 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Dave Roemer 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Dave White 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
David Ewart 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
David Nutt 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
David Richter 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Davin Saunders 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Dawn Hamilton 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Dean Benjestorf 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Del Kyle 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Denise Mitchell 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Diana Clowes 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Diane Moore 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Dick Nakamura 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Don Nicholas 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Don Poty 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Don Syroid 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Donna Garber 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Doug Rippingale 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Doug Robinson 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Drews Driessen-Van Der Lieck 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Dustin Marsh 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Dwayne Mustard 217 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
Dwayne Smith 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Dyson Ivanisko 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Ed Henri 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Ed Hinkey 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Ed Sharkey 217 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Ed Walker 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Elise Mah 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Eric Baikie 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Eric Christian 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Eric Cooper-Smith 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Eric Mainprize 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Eugene Berkey 217 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Eugene Titus 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Evan Hughes 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Forrest Owens 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Frances Cowen 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Francois Charron 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Frank Grasmann 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Frank Green 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Frank Greens 217 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Gael Arthur 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Gail McIntosh 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Garry Smith 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Gary Lawson 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Gary Phillips 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Gary Scales 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Gary Stotts 217 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Gary Tietzmann 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Gaylia Meitzen 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Geary Putt 217 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Gene Kneece 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Geordie Dunstan 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
George Deagle 217 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
Gerald Hinsberger 217 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Gerry Mathiasen 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Ginny Harrington 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Glen Johnson 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Glen McIntosh 217 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
Glenn Grycan 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Gordon Chu 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Gordon Cockburn 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Graeme Bull 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Grant Luscombe 217 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Grant Rosswarne 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Grayden McInnes 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Greg Main 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Harry Hemphill 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Heather Cornfield 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Hilford Burton 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Holly Davis 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Ian Murphy 217 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Ivan Ferenc 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Jack Isbister 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
James Newman 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Jan Debruyn 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Jane Campbell 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Janeen Griffith 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Janice Tanche 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Janice Thorburn 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Jaret Knowles 217 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Jason Dault 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Jeff Forsythe 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Jeremy Morrow 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Jerry Strelioff 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Jim Busselle 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Jim Dodd 217 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Jim Mitchell 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Joel Dunstan 217 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Joey Coello 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
John Bentham 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
John Mannion 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
John Payne 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
John Robinson 217 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Judi Spiers 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Judy Herder 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Julian Lee 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Julie Glaspy 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Justin Miller 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Justin Nairn 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Kalla Shields 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Kalyn Sutherland 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Karen Edinger 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Karin Maier 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Karl Kirkham 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Karren Hutton 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Kathy Klaus 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Ken Hamer 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Ken Kishiuchi 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Ken Murakami 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Ken Whiddington 217 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Ken Wilson 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Kent Moeller 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Keony Magnan 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Kevin May 217 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Kevin Winiski 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Kim Cornfield 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Laine McCarthy 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Lanett Barker 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Larry Dalziel 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Laurie York 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Lawrence Ranger 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Lee Watson 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Leeann Kruse 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Leslie Stapley 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Linda Barrett 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Lindsay Laverdure 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Lisa Nicholas 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Liz Cookson 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Lyle Unwin 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
MacKenzie Collins 217 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
Mark Dobos 217 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Mark Gage 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Mary McKim 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Mathias Mueller 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Maureen Dionne 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Michael Hives 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Michael Moscovich 217 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Mick Pomeroy 217 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Mike Finn 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Mike Gage 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Mike Ives 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Miles Latrace 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Montagu Lee 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Myriam Belisle 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Nathan Boutilier 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Neil McLennan 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Norman Poole 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Owen Lagos 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Pat Jeffrey 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Pat Nelson 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Patty Brown 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Paul Brown 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Pelle Wybenga 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Perry Desbois 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Peter Britain 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Phil MacNeill 217 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Phil Vanbourgondien 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Phillip MacNeil 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Quentin Dodd 217 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Quinn Small 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Racho Jordanov 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Raeya Mackie 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Ray Barriault Jr.  217 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Reaya Mackie 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Reenie Wolfe 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Reg Mackenzie 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Reid Mitchell 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Rich Fryer 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Richard Baker 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Richard Cuddeford 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Richard Johns 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Rick Dionne 217 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rick Eriksen 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Rick Sambrook 217 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rick Tillapaugh 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Rob King 217 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rob MacDougall 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Rob Nugent 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Rob Rowden 217 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rob Spiers 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Rob Turko 217 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Robi Gareau 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Roland Hilton 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Ron Gunn 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Ron Herder 217 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Ron Perkins 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Ross Whitmore 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Rowen Berkey 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Roy Dunbar 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Russel Sawchyn 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Russell Motion 217 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Ruth Heck 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Ryan Brown 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Ryan MacPhee-Gerl 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Ryan Newton 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Sally Kerr 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Sally Rickert 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Sarah Deagle 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Sayer Roberts 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Scott Campbell 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Scott Isbister 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Sean Batty 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Sean Rankin 217 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Shamra McClellan 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Shane Roberts 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Sheila Barriault 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Shirley Briley 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Shirley Murray 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Sonny Boon 217 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Sophie Cameron 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Stanley Harkof 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Stephanie Sprout 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Stephen Isbister 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Stephen Notley 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Steve Mitchell 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Steve Quintrell 217 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Steve Vandop 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Sue Berger 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
TJ Nelson 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Tanner Stolle 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Ted Maynard 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Tejay Delcasino 217 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Teresa Robinson 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Terri Sambrook 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Terry Blasco 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Terry Carr 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Terry Sambrook 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Tim Gudewill 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Tim Hanika 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Todd Beadle 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Todd Campbell 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Todd Stewardson 217 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Tom Barrow 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Tom Dennis 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Tom Hooge 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Tom Kirkham 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Tony Anderson 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Tony Harvey 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Travis Uzzell 217 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Trevor Erickson 217 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Trygg Carlson 217 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
Warren Barker 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Warren Howe 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Wes Sewell 217 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Will Duguid 217 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Will Stout 217 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1

3. What do we know about CR Chinook?

(* more like what have others learned about Chinook in the Campbell, I don’t know much).

There has been a lot of information collected on Campbell River Chinook Salmon, including from Tyee Salmon captured in the Tyee Pool, however, most of this data is not readily available online. Data that is available (and that I have found) is summarized below. Data and study results from other systems have also been included for comparison and emphasis.

3.1. Quinsam vs. Campbell

  • The vast majority of Chinook Salmon returning to the Campbell River system are from the Quinsam River. Based on available escapement data for both systems, a mean of 12.5% Chinook returning to the system are from the Campbell River (varies from 6% to 25% between 1991 and 2019).

Figure 9: Chinook Salmon escpaement in the Campbell and Quinsam rivers from 1991 to 2021.

3.2 Tyee Club Data (presented by Campbell River Salmon Foundation)

  • The origin of fish captured in the tyee pool was determined by examining coded wire tags in adipose clipped fish and otoliths in non-clipped fish captured between 2015-2018 CRSF 2018. This data suggests the majority of captured fish in the pool (including undersize) are from the Quinsam Hatchery (mean = 61% across all years), followed by the Discovery Passage Seapens (mean = 17% across all years). The remaining 6% of fish are intercepted on route to natal streams (e.g. Big Qualicum, Nitinat, Washington State hatcheries).

  • Despite 79% of all captured fish having an adipose fin, only 16% were actually wild and not of hatchery origin. Meaning most hatchery fish were not visually marked (but did have thermal otolith marking), which is not surprising given resources required for fin clipping.

  • Ages calculated from a subset of otoliths of fish captured in the tyee pool between 2015-2018 (n = 48) shows that the majority of fish are Age-4 (overall mean = 75%), followed by Age-5 (17%) and Age-3 (8%). No Age-6 fish were identified in the sub-sample of heads that were aged.

  • Of the 350 fish captured in the Tyee pool between 2015 and 2018, 26% were Tyee salmon (n = 90). However, this varied between years with Tyee representing 18% to 32% of all fish captured between years.

3.2 Spawn Timing

  • Chinook spawning occurs from late September through early November and peaks in mid-October. Spawners typically reside in the river for ~12 days.

3.3 Age Class Structure

  • A roughly equal proportion of spawners return to the Campbell River as age-4 and age-5 fish (see Table 1) Sturham et al. 1999. Very few fish return as Age-6 (1% (1 of 99 fish) of Campbell River fish in Sturham dataset.

  • However, Ewart & Anderson,2013 report that Age-5 fish were dominant in 2012 (61%), with Age-4’s accounting for only 37% of the run, and age-3’s representing only 2%. Age-6 fish were absent from the 2013 dataset.

catch_data %>% filter(Year >=2015, Year <=2018) %>% 
               group_by(Year) %>%
               summarize(total.catch = sum(catch_binary))          
## # A tibble: 4 × 2
##   Year  total.catch
##   <chr>       <dbl>
## 1 2015           15
## 2 2016           13
## 3 2017           44
## 4 2018           18

3.4 Size-at-Age

  • I have not found any measures of individual fish. But binned data from Sturham et al. 1999 (see Table 1) shows that Age-3 fish were between 500 mm and 699 mm (mean = 595 mm), Age-4 fish generally range in size from 550-949 mm (mean ~ 780 mm) and age-5 fish range from 700-949 mm (mean ~ 840 mm). Age-6 fish were identified, but accounted for less than 1% of all fish in the Campbell (n = 1 fish, 930 mm).
  • Fish in the Quinsam River are comparable in size to those in the Campbell, though hatchery fish generally return at a smaller size than their wild counterparts in the Campbell and Quinsam. Sturham et al. (1999) data suggest Age-4 and Age-5 wild fish may exceed 900 mm, while only Age-5 hatchery fish are likely to exceed 900 mm.
Table 4. Size at age of Chinook Salmon captured in Campbell River watershed from Sturham et al. 1999
Waterbody Age n % of Total Size Range <br>(mm) Mean Lenght <br>(mm)
Campbell River 3 6 7.8947368 500 - 699 595.0
Campbell River 4 34 44.7368421 550 - 949 779.5
Campbell River 5 35 46.0526316 700 - 949 842.5
Campbell River 6 1 1.3157895 900 - 949 930.0
Quinsam Hatchery 3 76 20.2127660 400 - 749 619.5
Quinsam Hatchery 4 225 59.8404255 550 - 899 743.5
Quinsam Hatchery 5 73 19.4148936 700 - 949 834.0
Quinsam Hatchery 6 2 0.5319149 750 - 849 784.0
Quinsam River 3 46 22.7722772 500 - 849 663.0
Quinsam River 4 114 56.4356436 550 - 949 733.5
Quinsam River 5 40 19.8019802 700 - 949 818.0
Quinsam River 6 2 0.9900990 800 - 849 838.0

Interesting side notes on recent studies examining trends in size of Chinook salmon.

  • Lewis et al. 2015 report that the size and age of Chinook returning to Alaska over the past 30-years has been decreasing and speculate that size-selective fisheries may be driving earlier maturation and declines in size (emphasis on speculate, they also point out that marine conditions and competition could produce similar results).
  • Ohlberger et al. 2018 built on this work and showed that there has been a reduction in the proportion of older Chinook age classes throughout most regions of the East Pacific and that length-at-age of older fish has decreased while length-at-age of smaller fish has increased.
  • Oke et al. 2020 state that relative to salmon maturing before 1990, adult Chinook salmon now produce 16% fewer eggs, transport 28% less nutrients and have lost 21% of their fisheries value.
  • Malick et al. 2023 reviewed 25 years of broodstock data from 43 hatcheries and found evidence of a significant reduction in length (and fecundity).

3.5 Fecundity

  • According to Ewart & Anderson (2013), female Chinook returning to the Campbell River in 2012 carried roughly ~5,700, a decrease from the roughly 6,000 eggs typically carried.

  • Decreasing fecundity rates have also been reported in larger studies. For example, Malick et al. 2023 compiled 2.5 decades worth of broodstock data from 43 hatcheries to examine trends in fecundity. They found significant declines in fecundity (and length), with the greatest drop in fecundity occurring over the past decade. This reduction in fecundity was primarily explained by a reduction in the size of spawners. Not particularly relevant, but they also estimate that a 1 mm reduction in length results in ~7.8 few eggs per female

3.6 Juvenile Life History

  • Juvenile Chinook Salmon in the Campbell River have been studied intensively since 2015 (e.g. Thornton et al. 2022. These data suggest fry emerge in February-March and that nearly all Campbell River Chinook out migrate as Age-0+ juveniles from March through July. Smaller recently emerged Age-0+ fry are dominant and typically captured from March through early May (37 to 52 m). The remaining fish emigrate as slightly larger Age-0+ smolts (~64 to 88 mm) from May through July.

3.7 Estimated Juvenile Production

  • Estimates of juvenile Chinook production based on numbers of observed spawners have generally been less than numbers trapped throughout the out-migration period (Thornton et al. 2022), suggesting juvenile survival rates may be above average (e.g. >10%).

  • Juvenile survival was very low in both 2014 and 2016, which may be due to unusually high flows during spawning and/or incubation periods in each year.

3.8 Estimates of Marine Survival

  • Marine survival of unfed fry released from the Quinsam hatchery range from 0.2% to 0.4% (yes, that is less than 1%) (Ewart & Anderson 2013).

  • However, based on data from Welch et al. 2020, survival of coded wire tagged chinook in the Quinsam ranged from a low of 0.056% in 2007 to a high of 3.3% in 1977, with an overall mean of 0.74%. Mean survival since 2000 is lower (0.28%, 0.56% to 0.56%). These estimates are generally within the range of other hatchery released sub-yearling populations within the straight of Georgia (see image below using data from Welch et al. 2020).

Figure 10: Survival of coded wire tagged Chinook sub-yearlings (Age-0 upon release) released from hatcheries throughout the Strait of Georgia, including the Quinsam River. Note that y-axis is log transformed to better see range of values (labels are actual values). Figure prepared using data prepared by Welch et al. 2020

  • Welch et al. 2018 used coded-wire tag data to look at large scale patterns of Chinook salmon survival. This data demonstrates that survival collapsed over the past half century by a factor of ~3 and is currently ~1% in many regions (consistent with estimates available for the Campbell). Survival in relatively pristine and undeveloped regions (e.g. Northern BC and Alaska) was comparable to areas with extensive water management and land development that were previously considered to have poorest survival (e.g. Columbia River). The authors suggest the widespread trends in survival may be evidence that marine conditions are more influential than local factors (e.g. freshwater habitat).

  • Similar trends have been observed in other species. For example, Price et al. 2021 found a 69% reduction in wild Sockeye salmon returns (though overall returns are comparable to historic levels due to intensive enhancement); that population diversity has decreased by ~70%, and; that life history diversity has shifted with populations now migrating from freshwater earlier and remaining at sea for longer.

3.9 Hatchery Influence and Population Status

  • Ewart & Anderson 2013 report that 56% of the otoliths examined from 2012 spawners showed no signs of hatchery marking and are assumed wild. The remaining 44% are presumed to have originated from instream incubators (31%), seapen released smolts (4%) and Quinsam River released smolts (9%).
  • Assuming data presented by Sturham et al. 1999 is representative of the overall Quinsam population, we can assume hatchery origin fish make up 62% of Age-3 fish, 66% of Age-4 fish, 65 of Age-5 fish and 50% of Age-6 fish.

Interestingly, hatchery releases have never been higher

  • Ruggerone & Irvine 2018 show that intensive enhancement has resulted in the greatest abundance of salmon in the ocean than ever before (specifically pink, sockeye and chum) and that marine carrying capacity may have been reached within recent decades.
  • Nelson et al. 2019 present evidence that hatchery practices have altered size and time that juveniles are released and have reduced diversity of life history traits (e.g. size, age and timing of smoltification). The authors argue that current enhancement practices may release fish at a time and size that is preferred by predators (e.g. all fish being released at same time and size and are easy pickings for large aggregations of predators).

3.10 Ocean Range

  • Tagging studies have shown that maturing Chinook of BC origin are frequently located in Southeast Alaska, the west coast of Haida Gwaii and west and north coasts of Vancouver Island Myers et al. 1996 (see screenshot of map from Myers et al. 1996, below).

screenshot of map.

3.11 Exploitation Rates

  • Approximately 17% of fish released by the Quinsam hatchery are intercepted in Southeast Alaska commercial net (4.99%) and troll fisheries (11.95%) while an additional 1.84% that are intercepted in Alaskan sport fisheries Rosenberger et al.2022.
  • A court ruling in May 2023 almost shut down the 2023 SE Alaska troll fishery. Unfortunately for those aspiring to join the Tyee Club (and Orcas), that decision was reversed in late June, 2023 and the fishery occurred from July 1 to 12, 2023, not sure whether it will resume again at a later date.
  • I have not found any data reporting exploitation rates of Campbell/Quinsam Chinook within BC commercial and sport fisheries, however, given locations where maturing BC Chinook salmon are typically encountered and presumed migration routes, I think its reasonable to assume that these fish are intercepted by sport and commercial fisheries in North Coast Vancouver Island, Haida Gwaii and along the west and southwest coast of the Island. Without data to

4. What could be affecting returns and catches?

Off the top of my head, there are four things that are most likely to be affecting catches of Tyee salmon (in reality, there are many, many more. But for now let’s start with this).

4.1. Juvenile recruitment

Generally, juvenile recruitment refers to the process of small fish transitioning to an older life stage (e.g., an egg hatching into an alevin, a fry becoming a parr or smolt, a smolt maturing into an adult…). According to Thornton et al. 2022 Campbell River Chinook fry emerge in February-March and out migrate as Age-0+ juveniles from March through July. Smaller recently emerged Age-0+ fry are dominant and typically captured from March through early May (37 to 52 m) While larger Age-0+ smolts are less common and move out from May through July (64 to 88 mm). Given that Chinook move to the estuary as fry, lets figure out how many fish should be produced each year. To do this, we need to know:

  • The number of females that return to spawn. Sturham et al. 1999) report that ~60% of Chinook returning to the Campbell River are female. So multiplying the annual escapement values by 0.6 will give us total number females per year. + The number of eggs that each female deposits, which according to (Ewart & Anderson, 2013) has been close to 6,000 eggs-per-female, but now may be closer to 5,700 eggs-per-female.
  • The number of females that spawn successfully. I have no data, so lets assume 100% of females that make it to the river will spawn.
  • The number of eggs that hatch and the number of alevin that survive and emerge from gravel as fry. For ease, we will assume that 10% of eggs will survive the egg-to-fry stage.

So under normal conditions we could expect to see annual fry production ranging from 42,066 to 616,967, with a mean of 271,962 fry.

But abnormal is the new normal, so let’s look at the extremes. High flows through the incubation period can greatly reduce survival by scouring away gravel and eggs. Thornton et al. 2022 observed this in 2016 when very few Chinook (or other salmon) fry out migrated following a large spill event in November 2016 (and to a lesser extent in 2014).

If we assume that flows over 375 cms reduce fry out migration by 90% we see that fry production in years with high flow events is greatly reduced, which will have significant effects on future returns (Note that I have no idea what flows are required to scour gravels in the Campbell or what associated mortality would be, this is purely speculative. AND, mortality rates are likely to vary relative to flow (e.g., 375 cms may result in 75% mortality, 500 cms produces 85% mortality and 600+ results in 90% mortality). If we apply this assumption, we get the figure below, which shows how high flows may reduce juvenile recruitment.

Although major flow event that reduces egg-to-fry survival will reduce escapement, there is a silver lining. Given the age structure of Campbell River Chinook, the resulting reduction in escapement will be spread across multiple years. Arguably, this is a great example of bet-hedging. If all fish returned as Age-5 fish (which would be advantageous biologically since larger fish produce more eggs), then a high flow event could essentially wipe out a full cohort. Having a population returning at different ages ensures that fish return each year, even if something reduces survival of a single age-class or cohort.

Figure 11: Estimated annual Chinook Salmon fry production in the Campbell River, peak flows during incubation period and estimated impacts of high flow events throughout the incubation period.

Well, I am already going out on a limb here. Key takeaway here is that high flow events during sensitive spawning and incubation periods are likely to have a detrimental effect on juvenile survival, which in turn will contribute to a reduction in the number of Tyee that I fail to catch. But, an event that reduces survival will in a single year will not wipe out the run as fish are returning at different age classes.

4.2. Marine Survival

Overall, Ewart & Anderson, 2013 have estimated marine survival in the Campbell River system is approximately 0.003.

Coded wire tag data reviewed by Welch et al. 2022 marine survival of Quinsam Chinook released as fry from 1974 to 2014 ranged from 0.056% in 2007 to 3.3% in 1977, with an overall mean of 0.74% (2014 release group was 0.55%, which is best it has been since survival rate since 1998).

. This stuff is all way more complicated than I want to get into. For now I will pretend that marine survival stable (spoiler, they are not).

4.4. Fishing effort and catchability

For now, I am going to assume effort (# of boats fishing per tide/day) is constant and that catchability (percent of Tyees present that are captured) is stable. In reality, I would guess that effort has likely decreased over time and catchability has likely increased as peoples knowledge, skill and fishing technology have improved over time (not everyone though, I still suck). Either way, without some hard data there is not much I can do with this.

4.5. Environmental Conditions during the Tyee Season

Tyee fishermen may be among the toughest of tough (cough, cough), but even so, windy, wet seasons are likely to result in lower effort and fewer fish than relatively drier, calmer seasons. It is also possible that fish behaviour will change in response to river conditions. Certainly there was a lot of speculation that high flows during the 2022 Tyee season contributed to record low catches.

For now, I have little interest in combing through historic weather data. But, I already have flow data. So let’s see how river flows have varied between seasons.

  • 7.9% of fish will return as Age-3, 44.7% of fish will return as Age-4 fish, 46.1% will return as Age-5 fish and 1.3% will return as Age-6 fish (Sturham et al. 1999).

  • All fish captured in the Tyee pool are actually from the Campbell system.

We can expand this to estimate the number of Tyee salmon that will return if we make even more assumptions!

  • For fun, let’s assume all fish > 900 mm are Tyee Salmon (I know girth is important too, but I dont have girth data) and using the (Sturham et al. 1999) data as a rough guide I will assume that 10% of Age-4 male adults are >900 mm, 25% of Age-5 fish (males and females) are >900 mm and 75% of Age-6 fish are >900 mm.

5. What explains the variability between years?

Note, this is where shit is going to get weird. At this point I am mostly just making shots in the dark and everything should be considered very skeptically.

Off the top of my head there are a couple ways we can approach this:

1.) How many fish should come back based on past on escapement counts and available biological data. Basically, this is just making a bunch of estimates about survival at different life stages and then comparing our predicted returns to what actually returned. It won’t actually tell us anything, but is a fun exercise.

2.) We can look at what factors influenced how many fish were available for capture in the Tyee pool (i.e. how historic conditions may have contributed to observed captures), and/or;

3.) We can look at what factors influenced how returning fish were captured (i.e. conditions during the fishing season).

5.1 How many fish should come back?

We can VERY CRUDELY estimate the number of salmon that should return to the Campbell River if we make a couple of big assumptions:

  • Fecundity is ~5,700 eggs per female (Ewart & Anderson, 2013)

  • Sex ratios are 60:40 female to male using (Sturham et al. 1999) data for Campbell River.

  • Egg-to-fry survival is approximately 0.1, can’t recall where this number came from but its commonly used as a measure of egg-to-fry survival of wild fish (compared to 0.9 for hatchery reared fish). Give results from Thornton et al. 2022 it is likely that egg-to-fry survival in the Campbell is higher.

  • Marine survival (smolt to adult) is approximately 0.003 (Ewart & Anderson, 2013)

  • 7.9% of fish will return as Age-3, 44.7% of fish will return as Age-4 fish, 46.1% will return as Age-5 fish and 1.3% will return as Age-6 fish (Sturham et al. 1999).

  • All fish captured in the Tyee pool are actually from the Campbell system.

We can expand this to estimate the number of Tyee salmon that will return if we make even more assumptions!

  • For fun, let’s assume all fish > 900 mm are Tyee Salmon (I know girth is important too, but I dont have girth data) and using the (Sturham et al. 1999) data as a rough guide I will assume that 10% of Age-4 male adults are >900 mm, 25% of Age-5 fish (males and females) are >900 mm and 75% of Age-6 fish are >900 mm.

If we run these numbers, each female will generate 1.7 offspring, of which 0.14 will be Age-3, 0.76 will be Age-4, 0.79 will be Age-5 and 0.022 will be Age-6. Furthermore, each female will produce 0.24 Tyee salmon. Let’s take a moment to remember that these assumptions are terrible. Larger fish are more likely to produce larger fish, so in reality some fish will produce a decent number of Tyee and others will produce none. But let’s keep it simple for now and assume every fish is able to make an equal number of Tyees

Based on this, each female should produce 1.7 offspring that return to spawn. Which is less than ideal.

Figure 12: Predicted returns of Campbell River Chinook by age-class relative to measured escapement (does not include Quinsam River fish).

Well that’s interesting. There are periods when my predicted returns closely align with actual escapement (most closely from 2003 to 2007, but my values are comparable from 2003 to 2010). This suggests my estimates may not be WAY off but does not confirm they are correct. Other notes:

  • Also clearly periods when my predictions are off! Most notably from 1998 to 2002, 2011-2012, 2014 and 2019 to 2022.
  • There are number of years where something appears to have happened and fish simply did not return (2005, 2011, 2014).
  • There are also years where something positive appears to have happened and far more fish than expected returned to the river (1999 to 2001, 2020).

5.2 How many tyee should be returning?

Let’s look at little closer at how many Tyee salmon may be returning in a given year.If all Tyee salmon were captured each year, we would be actively selecting against large fish, so we would expect to see a rapid and continuous decline in the total number of Tyees returning each year (which I suppose we are). But, I have had the opportunity to snorkel the Campbell River canyon a number of times and have seen spawning Tyee, and in 2022 there were lots of Tyee captured in the river… but that was likely due to higher than usual flows throughout the season. Anyways, all this to say that its unlikely every Tyee is captured in the pool, and the actual number returning to the pool should be at least equal to or higher than the number captured.

Among anglers who have been involved in the club for a long time it is generally believed that most Tyee are Age-6. And it would make sense that larger fish are larger because they spend an extra year in the ocean. If this is the case, then my assumptions below are totally out to lunch (quite likely) as Sturham et al. 1999 data suggest that Age-6 fish represent less than 1% of the total return to the Campbell and Quinsam systems.

Reminder of key assumptions in the plot:

  • 10% of Age-4 fish will return as Tyee.
  • 25% of Age-5 fish will return as Tyee.
  • 75% of Age-6 fish will return as Tyee.

Figure 13: Comparison of catches of Tyee Salmon, predicted returns of Tyee Salmon and annual Chinook Salmon escapement counts.

Well, this figure either shows how poor my estimates are, or that a tremendous number of Tyee are intercepted (e.g. marine survival of Tyee salmon is lower than other fish).

Figure 14: Chinook Salmon escapement from rivers on East and West Coast of Vancouver Island.

Well, that figure sucks. But it shows how variable escapement is between years. On the East Coast of the Island, abundance increased in 43% of plotted streams and decreased in all others. Decreases

Relative to 2013, abundance in all plotted west coast streams was slightly reduced in 2014. There was a major crash in the Burnam River, but this is exaggerated by unusually high returns in 2013, 2015 and 2016.

EVERYTHING FROM HERE ON DOWN IS JUST SCRIBBLES. Everything above is too. But this is even worse!

5.2 How Historic Conditions Influenced Captures

Figure 15: Catches of Tyee Salmon since 2016 relative to flow in the Campebll River.

Well, it’s clear that flows in 2022 were higher than past years and higher than mean flows over the past 5-years. But this doesn’t mean that is why fewer fish were captured.

Last year there was a lot of speculation that high flows in the Campbell River may have caused fish to move directly into the river rather than staging in the pool. Let’s look at flow in the Campbell River to see how 2022 flows compared to previous years.

Figure 16: Relationship between river flow and fish capture

Figure 16 suggests flows below ~ 25 cms are favourable and that higher flows will result in fewer fish, As one would expect. Fish are more likely to remain within the pool while flows are low and will move into the river when flows are higher and they can safely navigate upstream. However, the fishery occurs during the late summer, when flows are typically low. So it’s somewhat of a chicken and egg situation….

OK, well there is a relationship (that could be due to a number of things). Lets have a look at some of the older data.

5.3 Commercial Catches

Let’s look at commercial catches. Maybe there is a fishery that could be intercepting a large number of Tyees.

###Notes Plot peak flows 4 to 5 years previous (e.g. impact of peak flows on recruitment). - Assume mortality at >200 cms - spawning habitat lost at 300-400 cms - Is Quinsam flow regulated? Ask Mary.

Is return age genetic? Or environmental?

6. Supplemental Tables and Figures